Coronavirus

Future potential spread of the coronavirus is impacting world trade and threatens a global economic recession and inflection point. For the first time, Illness is now a major driving force. We first reported this virus way back in 2010 and regularly since July 2015 as a predictable surprise: a known unknown to most. It is not a Black Swan; it was foreseen! Forewarned is forearmed and forearmed is protection against unpleasant possibilities and this inflection point will most likely change everyone's future profoundly.

Here are some actions you could take offered by and our friends at WavePoint and BCG and McKinsey.

Companies are asking people to work from home (we have always worked from our homes since 2003). We think the latter will become a long-term and rapidly growing trend as people reduce traveling time, buy more online, and increasingly recognize the benefits to their health of staying home. More emerging, potential behavioral trends here. Begin regularly evaluating predictable surprises, be prepared and act in time, while others lose their shirt through inattention to the future.

• [New] If global emissions reduce by 8% over the year, with the largest reduction in April, the annual minimum monthly CO2 by September will be 410.6 ppm, compared to 411.1 ppm expected without the Covid-19 impact.
• [New] In the US, where more than 90,000 people have died from COVID-19, carbon emissions from energy are projected to dip 11% in 2020 compared to the previous year.
• [New] The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on airports, the wider aviation ecosystem, and the global economy continues to worsen and represents an existential threat to the industry unless governments can provide appropriate relief and assistance.
• [New] The number of open banking users is expected to more than double in size, to 40 million, by 2021 from 18 million last year, as the COVID-19 pandemic is increasing the need for consumers to aggregate financial accounts and gain deeper insight into financial health.
• [New] The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains and the near-certainty of a global recession are expected to depress 2020 smartphone shipments by 3.7% to 1.33 billion units.
• [New] The number of newborn babies in the US has dropped to the lowest level in 35 years, with experts estimating that Covid-19 could decrease numbers still further.
• [New] Maternity services in the UK are facing considerable strain, with the 643,000 babies due to be born in the nine months following the start of the coronavirus crisis set to suffer harsh realities as a result of the pandemic.
• [New] As Pacific nations face the threat of coronavirus to their health and economic growth, the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency has taken action to continue to monitor and control fishing of the world's largest tuna stocks.
• [New] Japanese refiners have received larger-than-expected cuts to their June-loading term crude supply from OPEC producers, keeping them balanced against plummeting domestic demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.
• [New] There is significant downside risk to LNG feedgas demand for summer 2020, due to global LNG market disruption associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
• [New] As many as 6,000 children around the world could die every day from preventable causes over the next six months due to the impact of coronavirus on routine health services.
• [New] Large areas of London will become car-free zones to facilitate social distancing by cyclists and pedestrians as coronavirus restrictions are eased.
• [New] Since coronavirus outbreaks are likely to continue to pose global health risks in the future, the possibility of developing a cross-protective vaccine against multiple coronaviruses has been considered.
• [New] The impact of the coronavirus crisis is expected to slash global economic output by nearly $8.5 trillion over the next two years, wiping out almost all gains of the last four years.
• [New] The coronavirus crisis is presenting new challenges to independent grocers in the United States, which could cede market share to Amazon.com Inc. and other large national players better equipped to handle increased demand and supply-chain disruption.
• [New] U.S. gas production and demand is expected to drop in 2020 and 2021 from record highs last year as government steps to slow the spread of coronavirus curtailed economic activity and energy prices.
• [New] Thailand's economy may shrink 3% -5% this year, sharply down from growth of 1.5% -2.0% projected in March, as the coronavirus pandemic hits global demand and domestic activity.
• [New] The Indian Steel Association has revised downwards India's steel demand growth forecast for 2020, due to the impact COVID-19 pandemic from 5.1%, as per growth predictions made in February this year, the demand figures are expected to touch a low of -7.7%, with significant downside risks.
• [New] The global impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are already starting to be felt, and will significantly affect the Sleep Aid Supplements market in 2020.
• [New] Americans will get priority access if a coronavirus vaccine developed by Sanofi proves to be safe and effective because the United States invested $30 million in the company's research programL Sanofi expects to have a vaccine available by the second half of 2021.

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Last updated: 27 May 2020