Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Forecasters at Oxford Economics pegged the chances of a recession in 2026 at 35%, still higher than the baseline 15% recession chance in any given year. Investopedia
• [New] The U.S. economy's ability to avoid recession while managing the impacts of higher tariffs and immigration policy changes will be a key factor. Stock Market News
• [New] After a bumpy start to 2025 thanks to tariffs, recession risks and high rates, the S&P 500 has erased all of its losses for the year - and now is coming close to achieving a new record high. Bankrate.com
• [New] A higher PMI reading, stable prices, rising new orders, and a pickup in job creation could ease fears of a US recession, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. FX Empire
• [New] The lowest rung of junk bonds are flashing warnings that the US economy could soon face slower growth and higher inflation, as well as the possibility of a recession. financialpost
• Global Financial markets have endured months of turmoil, with overlapping concerns over the US debt downgrade, recession fears, and an intensifying global trade war. Global Financial Market Review
• Gold price today are getting influenced by global economic uncertainties, geo-politics, financial unrest, US government credit rating downgrade, increased recession risk, and US-China trade war. FinancialExpress
• The de-escalating U.S.-China trade war reduces recession risks by lowering uncertainty, improving business and consumer confidence and reducing the threat of supply chain disruptions, though further tariff negotiations remain uncertain. Telemus
• Growth in Canada will be lower, and a recession more severe, if the United States maintains or even ratchets up its tariffs, if no trade agreement is concluded and uncertainty prevails, or if there is an escalation of a trade war between the United States and China. Bennett Jones LLP
• Global equities hit a record high this week on optimism around US-China trade negotiations and as robust economic data eased recession fears in the US. The BondBeat
• Barring more significant changes to existing U.S. tariffs, we expect growth in both Canada and the U.S. to slow in 2025, but expect both to avoid a recession. RBC
• Global markets responded to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, intensifying speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice within the year to stave off recession. Minichart
• More immediately, the Trump import tariffs coupled with a slowing US economy heighten the risk of another Japanese economic recession. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and a possible U.S. recession could disrupt travel behaviour and impact group and business travel. TravelPulse
• Over the next five years, a major geopolitical conflict was the top risk, according to 61% of respondents, followed by the possibility of a global recession and a debt crisis. finews.com
• JPMorgan economists lowered the risk of the US economy entering a recession to below 50% from 60% previously after the United States and China reached a trade breakthrough in Geneva last month. CNN
• Trump's tariffs will halt Chinese shipments by mid-May, trigger empty store shelves and falling sales by late May, lead to layoffs in trucking and retail, and push the US into a recession by summer 2025. New York Post
• The risk of a U.S. recession has decreased in recent weeks due to strong employment and consumer spending data. Nationwide Mortgage Bankers
• Crude oil rose for the second straight week on hopes that the US economy would manage to avoid recession in the face of tariffs. EWM Interactive
• The value of the US dollar could plummet around 15% -20% over the next five to 10 years - and that a more immediate recession could hit the US economy by the end of 2025. Business Insider
• Goldman Sachs expects the Japanese yen to strengthen gradually against the US dollar, driven by growing US recession risks, flow dynamics, and valuation. Exchange Rates UK
• The outlook for global container demand in the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain amid a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks in the U.S. MarketScreener India

Last updated: 09 July 2025