Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Germany's economy shrank in the third quarter, and data on Tuesday showing an unexpectedly big drop in industrial output in November raised recession fears in Europe's largest economy. The Financial Express
• [New] The UK economy has entered a technical recession, but we think the recent GDP numbers will mark a low point and expect an upturn from here.UK unemployment is low and employment is growing. UK - EN - Intermediary
• [New] In the next six weeks the probability of a U.S. recession getting started in the next twelve months will be around 21%. Seeking Alpha
• [New] Global trade tensions, inflation, and recession fears have weighed heavily on all risk assets, and Bitcoin has not been spared. BeInCrypto
• [New] Expressing frustration with new export controls placed on rare earth elements by China, Trump threatened to place an additional 100% tax on Chinese imports, potentially escalating tariff rates close to levels that in April fanned fears of a global recession. Euronews
• [New] Canada's economy is expected to dodge a potential recession in 2025, after grinding to a halt in the first half of 2025. Yahoo Finance Canada
• [New] The bigger picture is only getting clearer and clearer; some of the world's top economists are predicting a full-blown US recession in 2026, and the tech industry continues to grapple with changes such as shifting budgets, cutthroat profit chasing, and the unstoppable force that is the rise of AI. Salesforce Ben
• [New] 71% of respondents said they expect a recession in the second half of 2025, up 26 percentage points since January. CURE
• [New] US recession probability - UBS warns that the probability of a U.S. recession has risen to 93%. Economic Times
• [New] UBS does not forecast a recession despite the high probability from hard data. Economic Times
• [New] Conversely, a Pessimistic Scenario could see stagnation or recession if core inflation remains persistent, U.S. trade policies become more restrictive, and domestic political uncertainty worsens, leading to capital flight and prolonged economic stagnation. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] The U.S. tariff hikes could raise inflation by 2-4% within 18 months, pushing core inflation near 6% by mid-2026 and cutting GDP growth by 1.5-2% annually - potentially causing a recession-like slowdown. Sahm
• [New] The US is now expected to avoid recession, despite the imposition of historic tariffs on many of its trading partners, and the global economy is forecast to slow only slightly in 2025 and 2026. The Guardian
• [New] Negative payroll data could signal the start of a recession. Economic Times
• A Crown corporation is forecasting that the Canadian economy will officially fall into a recession in 2026, part of a global downturn directly linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. nationalpost
• Without AI-related investment the US economy might already be in a recession. CNBC
• If a U.S. recession hits in 2026 paid AI adoption is likely to keep decreasing. AI Supremacy
• The US economy might have slipped into a mild recession. CRE Daily
• The US ended the fiscal year of 2025 with a lower deficit-to-GDP ratio than the year before and sounded an optimistic note for 2026, noting that the US is on its way to lowering deficits without causing a recession. Yahoo Finance
• Concerns about a potential U.S. recession are increasing, with 46.8% of respondents expecting one within the next six months. Hotel News Resource
• The OECD's estimate of potential 1.3% GDP contraction in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 represents the most severe downside scenario, highlighting material recession probability. Medium
• New Zealand faces double-dip recession risks after Q2 GDP contracted year-on-year, prompting expectations for accommodative monetary policy. Plus500
• With global recession odds at 60% (J.P. Morgan), many SMEs face a reckoning: Repay or risk audits. Immigration News Canada

Last updated: 05 November 2025