Global Scans · Geopolitics · Weekly Summary

• [New] President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has described 2026 as a pivotal year of reform and resurgence, signaling a period when long-prepared policies will translate into concrete economic, political, and social gains. P.A. Turkey
• [New] Geopolitical tensions driving uncertainty Global tensions are fueling rising instability, with conflicts and strained relations shaping the political violence risk landscape. CFC
• [New] Alternatively, China could decide to test the stamina of the west by blocking all trade routes to Taiwan causing havoc in global commerce and politics. Portfolio Adviser
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From Beijing's perspective, Taiwan's slow drone buildup and political paralysis create a narrowing opportunity window before Western supply chains mature and production scales. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Taiwan will likely accelerate production timelines and increase procurement targets following continued Chinese military exercises, potentially reaching 500,000+ annual production by 2028 if political gridlock breaks. Drone Warfare
• [New] The de-escalation has reduced near-term political and trade risk between the US and Europe. Czapp
• [New] Regulatory hurdles could emerge, given SpaceX's Starlink has faced past scrutiny in geopolitics, such as in Ukraine, but current discussions focus on domestic IPO preparation. Roic AI
• [New] Geopolitical risks are likely to impact markets: US-China economic decoupling continues to reshape supply chains, while the global race for AI supremacy and rising populist politics add complexity. Firstlinks
• [New] Beneath 2026's economic opportunities lurks a darker possibility: that geopolitical tensions escalate from economic competition to military confrontation or political instability that fundamentally disrupts ASEAN's development trajectory. The Economy
• [New] Pakistan faces a dual crisis of political legitimacy and internal security, battling rising militancy that risks spreading beyond the frontier regions. Ronin's Grips
• [New] China could leverage TikTok's content recommendation algorithm to meddle in U.S. politics, perhaps by amplifying some messages or spreading misinformation. Fortune
• [New] Violence against women in politics has become a systemic threat to democratic participation in The Gambia, forcing many women out of leadership spaces through intimidation, harassment, and abuse, a new study by the Westminster Foundation for Democracy has revealed. International Knowledge Network of Women in Politics
• [New] Ukraine's progress towards EU membership will remain a political priority. The Good Lobby
• [New] Trump's attacks on the Fed, the escalating threats around Greenland, and the weaponization of tariffs are turning political instability into financial instability. Funding the Future
• [New] The United States is expected to see continued legal and political debate over the role of federal climate and ESG regulation. Net Zero Compare
• [New] Growing political turbulence in Israel, escalating violence in the West Bank that could lead to a renewed intifada, an Israeli invasion of Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from rearming, and/or U.S. abandonment of its peace plan or its renunciation of an eventual Palestinian state are all possibilities. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
• [New] NATO unity is fraying as US President Donald Trump reintroduces coercive power politics, including threats against Greenland. The Strategist
• [New] The PLA likely practiced a decapitation operation against Taiwan's political leadership that could form a key component of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Global politics will become more fragmented over the next decade, with traditional multilateral systems under stress. IO+
• [New] In 2026, BRICS engagement is likely to yield political signaling and incremental financial benefits, but its impact will remain symbolic rather than transformative unless institutional capacity and cohesion deepen substantially. Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute
• [New] A system of AI governance developed among wealthy nations and imposed on the Global Majority will lack the political legitimacy necessary for implementation and will fail to address the diverse contexts in which AI systems operate. Default
• [New] A China-Taiwan armed conflict has moved from Medium to High Risk, while political violence in the United States has risen from Low to Medium Risk for the EU. European Union Institute for Security Studies

Last updated: 01 February 2026