Global Scans · China · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Any disruption in economic activity between China and the United States will necessarily affect other Asian and world economies. How China handles Donald Trump's administration, its relationship with Russia and develops its leadership ambitions will be key areas to watch intently in the coming years.

• [New] There is an increasing threat from expanding ability of China, Russia, and North Korea to deliver nuclear weapons against the United States, including the territories of the United States. GovTrack.us
• [New] Supply chain disruptions - from sanctions on Russian oil and gas to Red Sea shipping bottlenecks - are driving volatility across key commodities, while protectionist policies, including US tariffs on metals and China's export bans on critical minerals, are reshaping global trade flows. Research and Markets
• [New] Copper & Commodities: CPI marginally supportive of copper stability, but broader upside is driven more by trade risks than Chinese demand. Moneta | Trade Forex, Indices, Commodities & More
• [New] Taiwan officials are eager to secure a deal with the Trump administration to maintain economic growth and ensure US military backing remains in place as China ramps up its threats. Peter Lewis' Money Talk
• [New] A relatively high tariff on countries that could substitute for China in global manufacturing would probably slow the shift of firms out of China because there would be less urgency if the wedge between tariffs on China and other manufacturing economies was smaller. Peter Lewis' Money Talk
• [New] China is predicted to experience a gradual slowdown in activity, with GDP growth forecast at 4.5% in 2025 - a clear deceleration compared to previous years. CIN
• [New] China's overhaul of its science research is sharpening geostrategic rivalry and impacting the risk portfolios managed by research security professionals. Hoover Institution
• [New] Most traders expect more stimulus from China to combat deflation, but are watching upcoming credit and trade figures. Moneta | Trade Forex, Indices, Commodities & More
• [New] China has issued a warning to the US, against reigniting trade tensions by reinstating tariffs on Chinese goods next month and threatened retaliation against countries that align with the U.S. to exclude China from supply chains. Business Tech Africa
• [New] China warns of retaliation Beijing issued warnings against nations that partner with the U.S. in reshaping supply chains-escalating the broader trade standoff. LFG Daily
• [New] With Germany playing a crucial role in EU military operations and China pursuing aggressive maritime strategies, the potential for conflict remains high. County Local News
• [New] As the foundational tools of chip design, the resumed supply of EDA software will directly impact the R&D progress of Chinese semiconductor companies while reflecting new dynamics in U.S.-China tech competition. Shenzhen SlkorMicro Semicon Co., Ltd.
• [New] While overall global coal demand is projected to decline, driven by the expansion of renewable energy in advanced economies and China, robust consumption in India and ASEAN nations is expected to provide a signicant demand oor. Scribd
• [New] Trade disruptions and protectionist policies (like proposed U.S. tariffs on China) could disrupt global supply chains and profitability for international defence companies. Medium
• [New] China, supported by fiscal and trade measures, is expected to grow +4.5%, while Mexico and South Africa see more modest projections due to trade tensions and fiscal consolidation. International Trade Magazine
• [New] If China and other nations respond by restricting American agricultural exports, it could create a ripple effect that impacts farmers reliant on international markets. County Local News
• [New] The attack by a Chinese Navy vessel on a German Air Force plane could escalate tensions between China and not just Germany, but also NATO and other allied nations. County Local News
• [New] As Ukraine and Russia deploy AI-enabled drone technology, China, Iran, and North Korea will be watching, and learning. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Most notably, China is expected to go from 60% of the global increase in oil consumption during 2015-2024 to virtually no increase in demand from 2025-2030. Schwab Brokerage
• [New] China's move to issue short-term export licences for rare earth magnets reduces the risk of near-term supply disruption and is likely to have a global policy response focused on expanding production capacity rather than constraining exports. Yahoo
• [New] In a pivotal moment for international relations, the BRICS nations-Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa-have come together to jointly condemn the United States for its perceived threats against pro-BRICS countries. County Local News
• We have warned before that the US tariff strategy could prompt global concessions and isolate China, with countries targeted by potential US tariff action making significant concessions, ultimately improving trade relations between the US and the rest of the world, but at the expense of China. Edge and Odds -

Last updated: 11 July 2025